Software runs my life

Year: 2015

Graduating from my INSEAD EMBA

insead mba infographic17 months, 52 days of full time study, 3 major assignments and 10 exams later I have finally graduated with my Global Executive MBA from INSEAD! Given I now have the benefit of hindsight, let me try and answer some of the big questions I had going into the program:

Should I do the MBA or EMBA?

The MBA has an average age around 28, and the EMBA 38. If you have minimal exposure to the basics of finance, marketing and operations for example and can afford a full year off then do the MBA. If however you just need to know enough to ask smart questions of your team, the cost of a year off is very high, and you have 8+ years experience then you should do the EMBA. Many people doing the EMBA are almost there in a mid-life crisis scenario – they have achieved a lot and are financially very comfortable, but have no idea what really makes them happy. The EMBA program is really set up to help you explore that.

Do the MBAs and EMBAs cover the same content?

Overall yes, however in a much shorter time. EMBA’s cover in 3 days what an MBA would cover in 12 days over 3 months. That means EMBA’s have more assumed knowledge, readings must be read and you never walk into an exam feeling really confident as you often have 12 hours post-lecture to prepare. The EMBA course is also more practical, it doesn’t go into the theory as deeply but is very strong on the implementation and case study side.

Why INSEAD over a US School?

INSEAD celebrates diversity in a big way. It’s a constant throughout teaching, participant selection, group selection and even social programs. I genuinely think part of the selection criteria is to maximise the number of participant countries more than pure test results. Group exams, simulations and projects are quite common. Traveling to electives is organised in groups, often with people sharing accommodation. Sharing summary sheets before exams is common. There is a real sense of shared destiny. One key observation I had was that in US programs the exam results are published to all members, and the bottom 5% given a warning – three warnings and you’re out. At INSEAD no results are published, and make-up exams are held quietly at a later date. Don’t get me wrong, people still fail and drop out, but everyone bonds together and that makes for a strong shared rather than individual experience. Networking is 50% of the reason people are here, so don’t underestimate the benefits of this culture. It’s also the #1 or #7 school in the world, depending on which program you take.

What was the hardest part?

The hardest part for me was the switching cost. By that I mean having a tough week at work, and then flying out to take a tough lecture on a totally different subject. I have learned that my brain loves to follow a long term focus and become great at it, so constantly disrupting that was at times even physically painful. I had to become comfortable with taking a day or two of constant effort to switch focus. If you don’t switch off work emails for example, then your brain never really internalises what you were meant to learn. You can’t look back at notes, it’s really experiential learning. By that I mean that the actual MBA content is pretty standard across all the programs I have seen. The exceptional part about INSEAD is the quality of lecturers – they are incredibly passionate, entertaining and challenging to listen to. As an introvert, I walked away from many lectures just needing and hour or so to sit and reflect on everything I had just heard.

Prioritising under pressure would be the second hardest part, but I feel that the program was structured in a way that it gradually made this harder rather than hitting you from day 1.

What was the best part?

The people. 95% of the participants were “just like me”, similar life stage and questions. It’s funny when you bring a group of highly successful people together and they all realise how lost each of us actually is. The first few modules are academic focused and people are still presenting a facade, but then one by one people open up and confess their flaws and insecurities. Some people have total breakdowns, some people quit their jobs and some get divorced. That’s not great in itself, but if people are actually facing issues that have bubbled under the surface then I do think that’s a great thing. Be warned though that taking the time to hold a mirror up to yourself can be dangerous! If you push through that phase though then you will have a more honest view of yourself and the world. You can address some things while in the program, but not all. I walk out of the program feeling more confident that I know myself and have the tools to make my life and the life of those around me genuinely better. I just hope I can hold onto this feeling.

How have I changed?

I don’t think I can objectively answer that. I filmed a before and after video, so maybe you can tell me?

Scott INSEAD Debrief

Flickrtoplus.com now supports Google Photos

Google Photos iconGoogle Plus photos has been split out into a separate product, Google Photos. As part of this move there were some API changes, in particular an newly enforced requirement to use OAuth 2.0. With some help we managed to get the tool updated after a period of 1-2 weeks of downtime in late June 2015.

Usage volumes have since been steadily increasing: over the period June – December 2015 daily usage has doubled. I’m not sure whether it’s due to a decline in Flickr usage, and increase in Google Photos usage, or a combination of both (my guess). I need to spend some time working on improving the efficiency of the tool over the holiday period, but until then would ask for your patience. It’s working, it’s just a bit backlogged.

NBN Fibre vs MTM comparison

Many people feel that a National Broadband Network is a recent, poorly thought through and unnecessary initiative. The reality is that the Australian Government has had a litany of national broadband plans over the last 12 years. Failed tenders occurred in 2003 (Government – Liberal), 2005 (Private – Telstra), 2006 (Private Optus/Elders + Government – Liberal), 2007 (Government – Labor) before finally in 2009 Labor founded NBNCo to build a Fibre to the Premises (FTTP) network. The demand and planning has evolved exponentially over this time period.

The question therefore is (and has been for 12 years) not if we need a National Broadband Network, but which method is the best? Side by side, you can see that the original NBN plan went through a number of revisions over the years, and also see it presented alongside the new MTM plan produced by the current Australian Government:

2012-15 2013-16 (v12) 2013-16 (v13)(Last NBN revision) 2014-17(First MTM plan, post 2013 election)
Revenues to CY2021 AU$23.1b AU$21.7b AU$19.4b AU$18b
Total capital expenditure AU$37.4b AU$37.4b AU$37.4b AU$30b
Total premises covered 13.176m 13.176m 13.274m Not specified
Total premises activated 8.286m 8.757m 8.788m Not specified
Opex to CY2021 AU$26.4b AU$26.4b AU$26.9b AU$27b
Funding: Government equity AU$30.4b AU$30.4b AU$30.4b AU$29.5b
Funding: Debt AU$13.7b AU$15.2b AU$13.8b AU$12b
IRR 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 3.2%-5.4%
Rollout method FttP Build drop FttP (NBN 2.0) Build drop FttP (NBN 2.1) MTM
Total premises passed by end FY2015 3.664m 3.202m 2.507m 1.093m
Average Download Speed 100Mbps 100Mbps 100Mbps 46Mbps

From ZDNet

Overall the maths and tradeoff is fairly clear, a 20% reduction in cost (capex reduction of $7.4b) results in a 54% reduction in speed. Of course given the current economic pressures this can be seen as a necessary evil, despite the significant deterioration in cost benefit.

There are two hidden factors that make this seemingly simple tradeoff more painful:

 

1) Copper produces incredible variations in connection speed

 

MTM speed estimates for Woy Woy, NSW

MTM speed estimates for Woy Woy, NSW

Full transparency, I work for YouTube. We are a service that is greatly affected by variable connection speeds, but we are not alone: Netflix, Pandora, Spotify, Quickflix etc. are all impacted. When someone like Netflix or Apple looks to bring a service to Australia, consistency of service delivery is an absolute requirement. It took Netflix 7 years before they would launch in Australia. If Netflix can’t justify launching in Australia, how can a start-up every achieve scale within the already small pool of Australian connections? It’s not possible, and moving overseas quickly becomes the obvious solution. To the right is a graph of what connection speeds will look like in one of the cherry picked MTM trial sites in Woy Woy, NSW. This doesn’t even take into account variations in speed due to weather, something copper is prone to. The fibre NBN on the other hand delivers almost uniform consistency across the country at all times.

 

2) Copper costs $1b a year to maintain (as of 2014, the government’s problem)

 

Copper lines are a very expensive asset that is rapidly declining in value. In the original NBN deal the copper was not included, instead NBN only got access to ducts and would pay Telstra as lines were decommissioned – a way to link pit remediation to Telstra’s financial incentives. Under the new MTM deal with Telstra signed in December 2014 there was almost no change, except that the copper was given by Telstra to the Government for $0 extra. Of course the devil in the detail is that the copper network currently comes with a $1b annual maintenance bill. If the government now needs to take over this maintenance bill, and rework the entire Telstra HFC network, who could they turn to for help? Of course Telstra will win the majority of this contract, they know the infrastructure better than anyone and are already winning 50% of the new contracts the NBN is handing out post-deal. That’s why I bought shares in Telstra.

 

So in conclusion, what’s the real trade-off?

 

The $7.4b capex reduction from the MTM to 2021 is neatly replaced by 7 years worth of copper maintenance at $1b a year. Even if it’s slightly less then $1b, the overall benefit at 2021 will be less than $1b in savings for a 54% decline in speed.

This also completely ignores the facts that the NBN fibre network will have lower ongoing maintenance costs, power costs, has near complete speed uniformity across the network, delivers a 2%+ higher IRR for the government and will be upgraded to 10x (1000Mbps) speed for absolute minimum cost.

Unfortunately in modern politics is seems anything beyond a 4 year term is irrelevant to the debate, and instead the focus is on what can be delivered as cheaply as possible before the next election on or before Jan 2017. That’s about the only time in history where the MTM will look even marginally better.

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